id: 25723
Назва: Ekonometric analysis of the investment change modelin in the fixed capital of Ukraine
Автори: Volontyr L., Potapova N
Ключові слова: investments in fixed capital of Ukraine, Gross profit of Ukrainian enterprises, Number of economically active population, Consumer price index, econometric modeling, forecastin, estimation of factor influences, elasticity coefficient, beta coefficie
Дата публікації: 2020-09-30 09:32:18
Останні зміни: 2020-09-30 09:32:18
Рік видання: 2020
Аннотація: Estimation of fixed capital investment using econometric models allows establishing many factors and their importance in the interaction with this factor. Based on this model, the minimum and maximum range of changes in the investment factor has been determined, which is further necessary for forecasting macroeconomic indicators. The article deals with the development of an econometric model of dependencies and influence of factors on fixed capital investment in Ukraine. The object of the study is the systemic stochastic relationships that are instantiated during the formation of fixed capital investment. The research was performed based on the statistical data of the enterprises of Ukraine of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. A multifactor econometric model that demonstrates the dependence of the fixed capital investments of Ukraine against gross profit, the number of economically active population and the consumer price index in Ukraine is developed and investigated in the paper. Thus, with the growth of gross profit of Ukraine (x1) by UAH 1 million, the value of investments in the fixed capital of Ukraine will increase by UAH 0.0005 billion; with the
growth of the economically active population in Ukraine (x2) per 1 thousand people, the value of investments in the fixed capital of Ukraine will increase by 0.067 billion UAH; with the growth of the consumer price index in 58 Annali d’Italia №10/2020 Ukraine (x3) by 1%, the value of investments in the fixed capital of Ukraine will increase by UAH 1.704 billion. With a gradual increase in the average expected value of the fixed capital investment of Ukraine by 25%, their number can be expected in the amount of UAH 347.0 billion under the following conditions: with the growth of gross profit up to the level of UAH 841721.8 million subject to constant other factors; with an increase in the
number of employees up to 23682.8 thousand people subject to constant shares of other factors; with the growth of the consumer price index up to 142.9%. The developed econometric model of changes in the fixed capital of Ukraine has a high level of multiple correlation and determination (about 99%), which is an evidence of the model high quality. The evaluation of the parameters has been confirmed by statistical significance based on Student t-statistics. The adequacy of the model was assessed using Fisher’s ratio test with 0.05 significance level, 3 and 6 degrees of freedom according to the level of variances. The model is adequate, which is confirmed by comparing the actual and tabular values of the Fisher test.
URI: http://socrates.vsau.edu.ua/repository/getfile.php/25723.pdf
Тип виданя: Статті у зарубіжних наукових фахових виданнях (Copernicus та інші)
Видавництво: Annali d’Italia. - Italy : Florence, 2020. - Vol. 4. - Р. 57-66.
Розташовується в колекціях :
Ким внесений: Адміністратор
Файл : 25723.pdf Розмір : 927183 байт Формат : Adobe PDF Доступ : Загально доступний
| |
|
|
